Our SOXL trade from Tuesday, 2/26/2013, was a huge success. We went against the majority at the time of the trade because it was at support and it paid off in a big way.
I did jump out of the trade late yesterday and got into SQQQ. It looked like SOXL was at resistance and the market was starting to reverse. As of right now, SQQQ is down a little over 1% and SOXL is up 1.5% so it's not looking good at the moment. I'll watch it closely and close the trade if it gets much worse.
Thursday, February 28, 2013
Tuesday, February 26, 2013
Swimming Up River
Here we are just about halfway through the trading day. The markets opened strong before fading most of the morning. I was holding MIDZ since around lunch yesterday. It turned out to be a fabulous trade -- one of my better trades this year. I was down a little this morning but MIDZ broke to the green around mid-morning. I had a choice at this time, keep riding the trade and hope the market keeps fading or get out and get long.
I decided to get out and get long.
I sold MIDZ and got in SOXL. Shortly after MIDZ fell and SOXL went up. Then the tide turned once more and SOXL lost most of it's gains for the day. That puts us where we are right now, about 12:15pm ET.
Looking at the market trend today and over the past few days most people have decided we have hit a top and are going straight down. I'm not so sure -- at least in the short term. Many of the 3x ETF's I follow have hit support. If they can hold we should start to rebound and possibly see some 8% - 10% gains. The downside is we could fall through support and head down, quickly.
My SOXL trade is down slightly as I type this, but I feel the odds are in my favor with this trade. There's a much better chance we hold support rather than fall through it.
Win or lose, I'll post an update with the results in a day or two.
I decided to get out and get long.
I sold MIDZ and got in SOXL. Shortly after MIDZ fell and SOXL went up. Then the tide turned once more and SOXL lost most of it's gains for the day. That puts us where we are right now, about 12:15pm ET.
Looking at the market trend today and over the past few days most people have decided we have hit a top and are going straight down. I'm not so sure -- at least in the short term. Many of the 3x ETF's I follow have hit support. If they can hold we should start to rebound and possibly see some 8% - 10% gains. The downside is we could fall through support and head down, quickly.
My SOXL trade is down slightly as I type this, but I feel the odds are in my favor with this trade. There's a much better chance we hold support rather than fall through it.
Win or lose, I'll post an update with the results in a day or two.
Sunday, February 24, 2013
Stocks Above 50MA 7% Less Than One Day Ago
On 2/20/2013 we had a fairly decent down day. The number of stocks above their 50MA dropped over 7% from the previous day. I ran the following study to determine what happens if we buy at the close of the down day or in this case, 2/20/2013.
As you can see, 5 days is the honey spot. It's tough to buy on such bad days, but this shows that most of the these big down days are just shakeouts. It pays to go against the market when we experience these down days.
Buying at the close on the 20th and selling at the close on the 27th would be the latest trade for this study. I'll put out an update on the 27th to see how it did this time around.
As you can see, 5 days is the honey spot. It's tough to buy on such bad days, but this shows that most of the these big down days are just shakeouts. It pays to go against the market when we experience these down days.
Buying at the close on the 20th and selling at the close on the 27th would be the latest trade for this study. I'll put out an update on the 27th to see how it did this time around.
Saturday, February 23, 2013
First Study
I really like reading studies that some blogs do. I figured if that's what I like there should be a few others that also enjoy it. With that said, here's my first crack at it.
Filtering out the low price/low volume stocks out over 80% of stocks advanced on Friday. On Thursday, only 21% advanced and on Wednesday only 11% advanced.
Our first study will look at trades for stocks that advanced less than 15% 2 days ago, less than 25% one day ago and greater than 80% today. If the conditions are met we buy at the close and sell X days later. Looking at results from 1980 - today, here's what we have when trading the S&P 500.
As we can see holding for 4 days is our best trade racking up over $40,000 on 17 trades in a 100k account. This means buying at the close on Friday and selling on the 28th should be a good trade.
Filtering out the low price/low volume stocks out over 80% of stocks advanced on Friday. On Thursday, only 21% advanced and on Wednesday only 11% advanced.
Our first study will look at trades for stocks that advanced less than 15% 2 days ago, less than 25% one day ago and greater than 80% today. If the conditions are met we buy at the close and sell X days later. Looking at results from 1980 - today, here's what we have when trading the S&P 500.
As we can see holding for 4 days is our best trade racking up over $40,000 on 17 trades in a 100k account. This means buying at the close on Friday and selling on the 28th should be a good trade.
Wednesday, February 13, 2013
Ragdoll
We continue to get thrown around like a ragdoll. As mentioned before, these small up and down days are something the MTT is not good at. The MTT tries to catch the big moves in either direction. With that said, we'll continue to take the trades and sooner or later we'll catch that golden ticket.
We are long TQQQ from EOD on 2/12/2013. Let's see what today brings us. Since 12/31/2012 we are up 7.22% with most of that coming on the first of the year.
In my new trading system that I'm fine tuning, I'm currently in SOXL from 2/5. It's paid us 4.17% up to this point.
We are long TQQQ from EOD on 2/12/2013. Let's see what today brings us. Since 12/31/2012 we are up 7.22% with most of that coming on the first of the year.
In my new trading system that I'm fine tuning, I'm currently in SOXL from 2/5. It's paid us 4.17% up to this point.
Friday, February 8, 2013
MTT Trades
As promised, here are the MTT trades for the year. The first trade was on 12/31/2012. We just got out of our 2/6/2013 trade yesterday.
We are up 7.33% on the year, but it's really quite disappointing. The market has whipsawed us out of almost every trade. Conditions like this are when the MTT is most fragile. The MTT looks for short-term trends, so constant up and down days really hurt it.
What we have to remember is to stay with the system. Play every trade and very soon we'll catch the big one (10% - 15%). The trade you miss will be the one you regret.
We are up 7.33% on the year, but it's really quite disappointing. The market has whipsawed us out of almost every trade. Conditions like this are when the MTT is most fragile. The MTT looks for short-term trends, so constant up and down days really hurt it.
What we have to remember is to stay with the system. Play every trade and very soon we'll catch the big one (10% - 15%). The trade you miss will be the one you regret.
Up, Down... Up, Down
The market doesn't know which way it wants to go. It looks like the big boys are going against the market making it very hard for us little guys to trade. We'll continue on waiting for the big score to appear... and it will.
I'm going to start posting my trades so everyone can verify the results. We'll post our MTT trades that we talk about most days, as well as a new system that I've been working on. The new system (name coming) is a little more complex but the returns have been fantastic. I won't reveal too much about it yet, but I think everyone will be interested after I show the results.
I'm going to start posting my trades so everyone can verify the results. We'll post our MTT trades that we talk about most days, as well as a new system that I've been working on. The new system (name coming) is a little more complex but the returns have been fantastic. I won't reveal too much about it yet, but I think everyone will be interested after I show the results.
Tuesday, February 5, 2013
GASX and NUGT
Down?
The market collapsed yesterday but the future are up this morning. Our MTT and long term indicators both went red yesterday so we're short. Let's not get too excited about this open. The VIX is up big these past few days so swings are to be expected. We'll ride this out and reevaluate at the end of the day.
Monday, February 4, 2013
Rolling Over
The MTT is setup for EOD trades, but the market is rolling over today. The sell signal has just come in so I'm jumping in SQQQ a little early. There's a chance we'll have a rally into the close. If that happens we'll sell our position.
Sunday, February 3, 2013
No More
The market continues to grind higher. I still feel we're near the top but what can you do. I've read over some of the old posts and I realize I'm trying to predict something that can't be predicted. Many "experts" believe they can call a market top or bottom, but in reality very few, if any, can. So, why should I try?
I created the MTT for exactly this... just like everyone else, I'm terrible at predicting things. The MTT tells us the short term trends while the long term indicator gives us, surprise, the long term indicator. These two indicators are all we need.
From this point on I'll stop trying to predict the tops and bottoms. I'm sure I'll give my thoughts, but no more "this is the day" type of posts.
With that said, we had a nice day on Friday. The MTT went green on Thursday so we were able to catch that move. Let's watch Monday and see what happens.
I created the MTT for exactly this... just like everyone else, I'm terrible at predicting things. The MTT tells us the short term trends while the long term indicator gives us, surprise, the long term indicator. These two indicators are all we need.
From this point on I'll stop trying to predict the tops and bottoms. I'm sure I'll give my thoughts, but no more "this is the day" type of posts.
With that said, we had a nice day on Friday. The MTT went green on Thursday so we were able to catch that move. Let's watch Monday and see what happens.
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